Lessons From an El Niño That Didn’t Go as Planned

2016outlooks.jpg

These two 90-day precipitation outlook models dramatically missed the boat by showing high probabilities for an anomalously dry Pacific Northwest. Graphics courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

By Lester Rowntree, Bay Nature

While many people feel this winter was a bit of disappointment — a betrayal even, since we didn’t get a record-busting Godzilla-like 1982-83 and 1997-98 — I’m not one of them. Remember back in your science classes when you learned that scientists are just as interested in being wrong as being right, or that a busted hypothesis was equally important as one substantiated?

Well, we can learn a lot from this year’s quirky El Niño. Some forecasts were right on the money while others were consistently wrong, and now, as El Niño’s unpredictable twin sister La Niña strengthens, it’s worth asking what lessons there are to take from the 2015-2016 winter.

Read the complete story at Bay Nature.

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